The most comprehensive guide to prediction markets and Polymarket. Free, open-source, continuously updated.
This book covers everything you need to know about prediction markets and Polymarket:
- Understanding -- Prediction market theory, Polymarket's origin story, and the 2024 U.S. election that put it on the map
- Practice -- Step-by-step registration and trading guide, whale tracking toolkit, six battle-tested strategies, and the AI bot arms race
- Deep Water -- Market manipulation cases, insider trading, settlement disputes, competitive landscape, regulatory outlook, and what's next
| Edition | |
|---|---|
| English | Polymarket-The-Complete-Guide-v260411.pdf |
| Chinese | Polymarket-Complete-Guide-zh-v2.0.0.pdf |
💡 Download the PDF for the best reading experience. GitHub's online preview may not render properly.
- How prediction markets work (Hayek, wisdom of crowds, price as information)
- Polymarket mechanics: USDC, Polygon, Hybrid CLOB, UMA Oracle
- 2024 U.S. Election: Polymarket vs. polls, election night timeline, the French whale
- Practical guide: registration, deposits, trading, withdrawals
- Whale directory: Theo ($85M), the Million-Dollar Club, tracking tools
- Six strategies: information arbitrage, cross-platform arb, high-certainty bonds, market-making, domain specialization, speed trading
- AI trading bots: Claude bots, Polystrat, four-layer architecture, Feb 2026 rule changes
- Dark side: Israeli military leak, UMA oracle manipulation, 25% fake volume (Columbia study), 92.4% of wallets lose money
- Competition: Polymarket vs. Kalshi duopoly, emerging platforms, global regulation
- Future: $POLY token, sports expansion (MLB $300M deal), traditional finance entry
Huashu -- AI Native Coder, indie developer, and tech content creator with 300K+ followers.
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- Website: huasheng.ai
This is part of the Orange Book Series -- a collection of free, in-depth guides on AI tools and emerging technology. Other titles include guides on Claude Code, AI Agent Skills, and more.
This document is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Prediction market trading involves risk. Please consult local laws and regulations before participating.
This work is shared freely for educational purposes. Feel free to share and reference with attribution.